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Forecast
Accuracy Update
NFL Week #17
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The Importance of
Looking Back & Keeping Score...
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If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."
We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90’s. With years of research, experience and results, we’ve
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.
Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.
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Some forecasting highlights from wacky week 17 include:
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1) Edgerrin James 93 rush yards (actual=102)
2) Troy Smith would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=171)
3) Marshawn Lynch 23 rec yards (actual=22)
4) Trent Edwards would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=133)
5) Panthers over the Bucs
6) Matt Moore would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=174)
7) Adrian Peterson 96 Total yards (actual=100)
8) Bernard Berrian will fall well below his average (actual=33yds below his
avg.)
9) Garrett Wolfe 30 rec yards (actual=32)
10) Browns 361 Total Yards (actual=360)
11) Jason Witten will fall well below his average (actual=51yds below his
avg.)
12) Tony Romo would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=86)
13) Jay Cutler 239 passing yards (actual=246)
14) Jon Kitna 242 passing yards (actual=246)
15) Shaun Mcdonald 68 receiving yards (actual=69)
16) Mike Furrey 44 receiving yards (actual=47)
17) Packers over the Lions
18) Brett Favre would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=99)
19) Brandon Jackson 23 rec yards (actual=22)
20) Andre Johnson 78 receiving yards (actual=74)
21) Peyton Manning would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=95)
22) Dallas Clark will fall well below his average (actual=39yds below his
avg.)
23) Joseph Addai would rush well below his average (actual=48yds below)
24) Tony Gonzalez 68 receiving yards (actual=64)
25) Jesse Chatman 39 rush yards (actual=42)
26) Tarvaris Jackson would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=175)
27) Laurence Maroney 48 rush yards (actual=46)
28) Brandon Jacobs would rush well below his average (actual=27yds below)
29) Jerricho Cotchery 75 receiving yards (actual=76)
30) Brian Westbrook would rush well below his average (actual=50yds below)
31) Brian Westbrook 105 Total yards (actual=99)
32) Kevin Curtis 60 receiving yards (actual=62)
33) Charlie Batch 211 passing yards (actual=218)
34) Chris Chambers 52 receiving yards (actual=49)
35) Matt Hasselbeck would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=147)
36) Shaun Alexander would rush well below his average (actual=26yds below)
37) D.j. Hackett 39 receiving yards (actual=41)
38) Chris Weinke would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=104)
39) Frank Gore 113 Total yards (actual=115)
40) Chris Brown 24 rush yards (actual=22)
41) Vince Young would fail to reach 200 passing yards (actual=157)
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Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and
"C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've
been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for
the past 14 years.
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| Quarterbacks
with a 4for4 projected Fantasy Impact Rating of: |
Last
Week
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For
the Year
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Over
Last 14 Seasons |
| Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Pass
Yards |
Pass
TDs |
| A-Game |
285
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2.3
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275
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2.2
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257
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1.8
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| B-Game |
260
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1.7
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231
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1.5
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213
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1.2
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| C-Game |
138
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1.1
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139
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0.8
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174
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0.9
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| Running Backs
with a 4for4 projected Fantasy Impact Rating of: |
Last
Week
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For
the Year
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Over
Last 14 Seasons |
| Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
| A-Game |
89
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0.5
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113
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0.6
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112
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0.8
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| B-Game |
96
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0.5
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88
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0.5
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90
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0.5
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| C-Game |
30
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0.2
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25
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0.1
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31
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0.2
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| Wide Receivers
with a 4for4 projected Fantasy Impact Rating of: |
Last
Week
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For
the Year
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Over
Last 14 Seasons |
| Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
| A-Game |
82
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0.9
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79
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0.7
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85
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0.6
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| B-Game |
80
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0.6
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68
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0.4
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62
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0.4
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| C-Game |
26
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0.3
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26
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0.2
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38
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0.3
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Note: In 2002, we've extended the number of C-Game Running Backs and Wide
Receivers we track. As a result, the performance for these segments will appear lower
than historical norms. This is to be expected.
To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.
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